1.Original manufacturers successfully raised NAND flash memory wafer contract prices
According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the recent NAND flash memory spot market particle quotations have been driven by the news that the wafer (wafer) contract price has successfully increased, and some items have seen relatively active inquiry demand.
According to TrendForce, the main reason was that NAND flash memory manufacturers further negotiated new wafer orders with some Chinese target module manufacturers in late August and successfully raised the 512Gb wafer contract price by about 10%. Other factors The factory also followed suit and raised the price of similar products, showing that the original factory was unwilling to trade at a lower price, thus driving a short-term upward trend in the spot market in the near future. However, since the relevant purchase orders emerged based on the increase in supply-side quotations, it remains to be seen whether there are actual terminal orders to support it.
2. Organization: Expand the estimate of smartphone shipment decline this year to 4.7%
According to IT House news on the 31st, the latest report released by market research organization IDC estimates that global smartphone shipments in 2023 will be 1.15 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, setting a new low in ten years. The agency’s June report estimated full-year mobile phone shipments at 1.17 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. The reason for the revised report is that the weak economic outlook and persistent inflation have suppressed consumer demand and lengthened the update cycle.
IDC predicts that mobile phone shipments will recover in 2024, achieving growth of 4.5%, and maintain low single-digit growth in the next five years, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.7%. IDC believes that the iPhone is better able to cope with economic challenges than Android models, and it is estimated that the proportion of iOS systems will increase by 1.1 percentage points to 19.9% in 2023, setting a new high in history. In contrast, Android will drop 6.0 percentage points.
3. The decline in domestic PC shipments slowed to 9.6 million units in the second quarter
According to IT House, the latest report released by Canalys shows that the decline in shipments of personal computers (including desktops, notebooks, and workstations) in my country slowed to 9.6 million units in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. The shipment volume of desktop computers (including desktop workstations) was 3 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; the shipment volume of notebook computers (including mobile workstations) was 6.6 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19%.
Among manufacturers, Lenovo continued to hold the first place in market share, but its shipments fell by 24% year-on-year. HP and Huawei ranked second and third respectively, each with a year-on-year increase of 6%. Dell’s shipments plummeted 52% year-on-year, while Apple’s shipments increased 17% year-on-year.
In terms of tablets, domestic shipments in the second quarter were 6.553 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Apple ranked first in terms of share, with shipments of 2.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47%. Huawei ranked second, with shipments increasing 19% year-on-year to 1.2 million units.
4. Demand for memory and flash memory will grow next year, and production cuts by original manufacturers will continue.
According to fast technology news, TrendForce’s latest research report points out that it is expected that in 2024, memory and flash memory original manufacturers will continue to reduce production strategies, especially flash memory that suffers serious losses. However, at the same time, at least in the first half of 2024, consumer electronics Market demand remains unclear, and server demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the market demand for memory and flash memory will surge by 13.0% and 16.0% respectively in 2024, which is approximately 6.5 and 5.0 percentage points higher than this year.
In 2024, the average capacity of PC memory is expected to increase by approximately 12.4%. The average PC SSD capacity is expected to grow by only about 8%-10%. The average capacity of mobile phone memory is expected to grow by approximately 14.3% and another 7.9% next year. The storage capacity of mobile phones is expected to grow by about 13.0%. However, due to cost constraints, there will not be many low-end and mid-range models above 1TB for the time being, and QLC flash memory has not been recognized, so the growth of mobile phone space will be relatively slow.