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Automotive and other applications power the IC industry in the second half of the year

1. Consumer electronics remains sluggish in the second half of the year, while automotive and industrial control ICs remain stable

According to Taiwan’s Electronic Times quoted by Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, although the traditional peak season has entered the second half of 2023, the outlook for consumer electronics products seems to be relatively sluggish. According to preliminary observations, the demand for automotive and industrial control is expected to remain relatively stable in the second half of the year. Performance.

2. Data: Capital spending of global semiconductor manufacturers will drop by 14% in 2023

According to reports quoted by foreign media SemiMedia, the total capital expenditure of global semiconductor manufacturers in 2023 is expected to drop by 14% from 2022 to US$156 billion. The largest decline in capital expenditure is among memory manufacturers. Samsung Electronics’ investment in 2023 will remain basically the same as last year, and SK Hynix and Micron will shrink sharply.

In terms of wafer foundries, TSMC’s capital expenditure is expected to drop by 11% to US$43.6 billion, SMIC is the same as last year, GF is down 27%, and UMC is down 2%. In terms of IDM, Intel’s capital expenditure is expected to decline by 19%, Texas Instruments will increase by 43%, STMicroelectronics will increase by 14%, and Infineon will increase by 34%. Despite the reduction in total capex, Samsung, TSMC and Intel will account for approximately 60% of total semiconductor capex in 2023.

3. With the penetration of automotive electronics and new energy, the output value of automotive PCBs has risen against the trend

According to Taiwan Business Times, TrendForce related research shows that the lack of significant recovery in consumer electronics will lead to a 5.2% decline in global PCB output value in 2023 compared to 2022 to US$79 billion, but the continued penetration of automotive electronics and electric vehicles will drive 2023. In 2019, the global automotive PCB output value increased by 14% to US$10.5 billion, accounting for 13% of the overall PCB output value from 11% last year. By 2026, the output value of automotive PCBs is expected to reach US$14.5 billion, accounting for 15% of the overall PCB output value, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% from 2022 to 2026.

In terms of types, it is estimated that the 4-8 layer boards mainly used in automotive PCBs will account for about 40% of the overall automotive PCBs in 2023, and will drop to 32% by 2026. The proportion of HDI boards with higher unit prices will be from 15% increased to 20%; FPC boards increased from 17% to 20%, thick copper boards and radio frequency boards increased from 8% and 8.8% to 9.5% and 10.8% respectively, and single-layer and double-layer panels with lower unit prices decreased from 11.2% to 7.7%.

4. Counterpoint: Global PC shipments ushered in a quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter

According to IT House, the latest report released by market research firm Counterpoint Research shows that in the second quarter of 2023, global PC shipments will drop by 15% year-on-year and increase by 8% quarter-on-quarter. The report said that the global PC market continued to pick up. Although there was still a double-digit year-on-year decline, it was narrowed compared to 28% in the first quarter.

Among the manufacturers, Lenovo still ranks first, with shipments down 18% year-on-year, but with double-digit quarter-on-quarter growth. HP’s share increased to 22%, the highest since the second quarter of 2021, due to early inventory adjustments and higher Chromebook orders. Dell’s shipments increased month-on-month, but fell by double digits year-on-year. Due to the launch of new products, Apple’s shipments showed single-digit year-on-year growth.

5. Canalys: The decline in global PC shipments slowed down in the second quarter

According to IT House, the latest report from market research firm Canalys shows that the decline in the global PC market slowed down in the second quarter, with the total shipments of desktops and notebooks falling by 11.5% year-on-year to 62.1 million units, after two consecutive quarters. Shipments fell more than 30%.

PC shipments in the second quarter increased by 11.9% quarter-on-quarter, and the market is expected to accelerate its recovery in the second half of this year. Notebook PC shipments fell 9.3% year-over-year to 49.4 million units, while desktop PCs faced a larger decline of 19.3% to 12.6 million units.

6. The price of memory has fallen, and Samsung Electronics’ performance has been severely tested

According to TechWeb citing foreign media reports, as the world’s largest memory manufacturer, the revenue of Samsung Electronics’ storage business has fallen sharply year-on-year for three consecutive quarters, and its Device Solutions Division (DS) has also been affected. Revenue and operating profit It has also fallen sharply year-on-year for three consecutive quarters, and in the first quarter of this year, there was an operating loss of 4.58 trillion won.

The situation of Samsung Electronics’ department in the second quarter is still not optimistic. It is expected to still have an operating loss of about 4 trillion won, and the annual operating loss is expected to exceed 10 trillion won. Regarding the operating profit of Samsung Electronics this year, several securities companies expect it to be 8.9 trillion won, which will drop sharply from last year’s 43.38 trillion won.

7. Samsung Electronics’ 4nm yield rate has been improved to over 75%.

According to TechWeb citing foreign media reports, after a source revealed in April that the yield rate of the 4nm process technology had been increased from about 60% to at least 70%, there was news that Samsung Electronics further improved the yield rate of this process technology. It is reported that it has exceeded 75%, so the yield rate of the process may be closer to TSMC.

After the yield rate increases, Samsung Electronics is also expected to expand their 4nm process technology customers, and the possibility that Qualcomm and Nvidia will once again be handed over to Samsung Electronics is increasing.

8. South Korea’s chip exports plummeted, triggering a drop in GDP rankings

According to the fast technology report, according to the latest data disclosed by the Bank of Korea (the central bank), based on market exchange rates, South Korea’s nominal GDP was 1.6733 trillion US dollars last year, ranking 13th in the world, falling out of the top 10 after three years. A person from the Bank of Korea said that it is unlikely that South Korea will return to the top ten this year.

South Korea’s economic downturn is mainly due to problems with chip exports. South Korea downgraded its economic growth outlook for 2023 on the same day as chip exports have plummeted. According to reports, in the first 10 days of July, South Korea’s semiconductor chip exports plummeted by 36.8% to US$1.82 billion, reflecting that global chip demand has not yet recovered. Previously, the semiconductor industry accounted for about 20 percent of the country’s total exports.